Forecasting and Demand Planning: Gazing Into the Crystal Ball of Inventory

In Faerûn, having inventory on hand when the next caravan arrives is the difference between a profitable month and a letter of apology written in infernal ink. At the Waterdeep Trading Company, we don’t rely on wishful thinking or divination spells to keep our shelves stocked. We use Forecasting and Demand Planning in Dynamics 365 to stay ahead of the curve.

Let’s break down what that looks like when you’re supplying everything from iron spikes to cursed mirror cases.

What Is Forecasting?

Forecasting is the process of predicting future demand based on historical data, market trends, upcoming events, and customer behavior. In Dynamics 365, this can be driven by:

• Historical sales
• Purchase trends
• Manual adjustments
• External factors (festivals, raids, wars, winter wolf migration patterns)

Forecasts can be entered manually or generated using built-in models, which project expected demand over a defined horizon. These forecasts can be set at various levels:

• By item
• By item group
• By customer or sales channel
• By warehouse or region

Example: Forecast for Health Potions

What Is Demand Planning?

Demand planning takes that forecast and aligns it with inventory, procurement, and production. It helps answer:

• Do we have enough raw materials?
• Should we increase safety stock?
• Should we initiate new purchase orders or production runs?

In Dynamics 365, this process feeds into Master Planning, where forecasted demand is treated like confirmed orders, generating planned supply suggestions. These can include:

• Planned purchase orders
• Planned transfer orders
• Planned production orders

Why It Matters for the Waterdeep Trading Company

Greta Ironfist, our fearless founder, once said:

“If you can predict the next spike in rope demand during troll season, you don’t need luck. You need a forecast.”

In the past, too many decisions were based on guesswork. Now, by using historical trends and adjusting for regional events (like the Annual Adventurers’ Expo in Silverymoon), we’re better prepared for demand fluctuations.

Best Practices in Dynamics 365 for Forecasting

Start with historical data: Use the Forecast planning workspace or Excel templates to analyze patterns.

Segment your products: Forecast high-volume items differently from rare or seasonal goods.

Involve stakeholders: Sales, warehouse managers, and even suppliers may have insights that raw numbers miss.

Adjust forecasts regularly: Update based on shifting trends, marketing events, or monster incursions.

Use forecast reduction: Let actual sales orders reduce the forecast so you don’t double-count demand.

Putting It Into Action

Let’s say you forecast a rise in demand for Frost Resistance Gear due to early winter reports from Icewind Dale. Dynamics 365 will recommend boosting production of frost cloaks and earmuffs, generating supply plans to meet the projected demand before it becomes a problem.

These forecasts then flow into:

• Master Planning for automated supply suggestions
• Warehouse stocking plans
• Cash flow planning based on expected procurement

Final Thoughts

Forecasting and demand planning in Dynamics 365 give you something better than magical foresight — real-time, data-driven decisions that protect margins and customer satisfaction.

You no longer need to pray to Mystra for inventory clarity. With the right setup, you can plan your way to profitability and avoid the scroll of backorders altogether.

Ready to build your own forecasting models and master plans?

Start your journey today with the Advanced Dungeons & Dynamics 365 guides at adnd365.com/start

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